Left-Wing Alliance Projected to Beat Far Right in French Parliamentary Elections.

Published on 08 July 2024, by Marine Beaumont | Europe.

In a surprising second-round result, the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) is expected to surpass Marine Le Pen’s far-right party in the French parliamentary elections, based on an estimate from IPSOS.

Following a notably high voter turnout, the NFP—a coalition of five parties ranging from the far-left France Unbowed to the more moderate Socialists and Ecologists—is anticipated to secure between 172 and 192 seats in the National Assembly. While this would make it the largest party, it still falls short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.

President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance, which had performed poorly in the first round last Sunday, has rebounded significantly and is projected to win between 150 and 170 seats. Despite leading in the first round, the far-right National Rally (RN) is expected to obtain between 132 and 152 seats.

The RN's strong first-round performance had raised concerns that France might elect its first far-right government since the World War II Vichy regime. However, Sunday’s projection marks a major upset, indicating a strong voter preference to prevent the far right from gaining power, even if it results in a political stalemate with no party achieving an absolute majority.

After the initial round, an unprecedented number of over 300 seats were contested in a three-way runoff involving Ensemble, the NFP, and the RN. By Tuesday, over 200 centrist and left-wing candidates had withdrawn from the second round to prevent vote splitting.

The announcement of the projection was met with cheers in Paris. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the prominent leader of France Unbowed, addressed a jubilant crowd at Stalingrad square, calling the results a “huge relief for the overwhelming majority of people in our country.”

“Our people have clearly rejected the worst-case scenario,” Mélenchon stated. “A magnificent surge of civic mobilization has taken hold!”

Conversely, the initially celebratory atmosphere at an RN event in Bois de Vincennes soured just before the polls closed. Following the announcement, Jordan Bardella, the party’s 28-year-old leader, expressed that France had been plunged into “uncertainty and instability.”

Selected by Marine Le Pen to lead the party and distance it from its racist and antisemitic past, Bardella had brought the party closer to power than ever before. Disheartened by the results, he criticized the NFP as an “alliance of dishonor.”

“Our deputies will ensure we oppose the migration policies and other agendas of the far left. We will not engage in any coalition or compromise; we stand with the French people,” he asserted.

In a brief statement, the Elysee stated that Macron is waiting for the complete results from all 577 constituencies before making necessary decisions.

“As the guarantor of our institutions, the president will ensure that the sovereign choice of the French people is respected,” the statement read.

After parliamentary elections, the French president appoints a prime minister from the winning party. Typically, this would be from the president’s own party. However, if Sunday’s projection holds, Macron might need to appoint a prime minister from the left-wing coalition, an uncommon situation known as “cohabitation.”

Speaking to supporters, Mélenchon asserted that Macron “has the duty to call the New Popular Front to govern.”

It remains unclear from which party within the coalition Macron will choose a prime minister. France Unbowed is projected to win up to 74 seats, potentially making it the largest single party within the NFP, ahead of the Socialists, who could win up to 69 seats.

Macron and his allies have consistently stated they would not form a coalition with Mélenchon. Following last Sunday’s first round, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, a Macron protege, said France Unbowed was hindering the creation of a “credible alternative” to the far right.

The NFP was established less than a month ago after Macron called for a snap vote following his party’s significant defeat to the RN in the European Parliament elections last month.

The broad and potentially volatile coalition chose its name to echo the original Popular Front that thwarted the far right in 1936. If Sunday’s projection is confirmed, the NFP will have met this goal.

The coalition campaigned on promises to raise the minimum monthly wage to 1,600 euros (over $1,700), cap the prices of essential foods, electricity, fuel, and gas, and revoke Macron’s unpopular pension reform, which increased the French retirement age from 62 to 64.